Baccarat Simulations Series 8: MB Advanced Tie Count

Results from Baccarat Simulations Series 8 are presented below.

In this series, I examined the Michael Brannan’s Advanced Tie Count Method.  Read a discussion of the results in the following post, The Ties That Bind.

	Strike +30	Strike +40	Strike +50	Strike +60
Total Units Won	219,736	60,480	13,272	2,416
Total Units Lost	259,623	70,761	15,854	2,944
Total Units Bet	287,090	78,321	17,513	3,246
Player’s Advantage	-13.8936%	-13.1267%	-14.7433%	-16.2662%
Percentage of Bets Won	9.5674%	9.6526%	9.4730%	9.3038%
Percentage Bet Opportunity	3.4268%	0.9349%	0.2090%	0.0387%

Data Set: 100,000 baccarat shoes (ref. My Baccarat Shoe Factory).

For this set of 100,000 shoes, the frequency of Player, Banker, and Ties were as follows:

Player Wins	3,738,456	(44.6232%)
Banker Wins	3,840,209	(45.8377%)
Tie Wins	799,170	(9.5391%)
Total	8,377,835

Player’s Advantage is the net units won after commissions divided by the total units bet.  The theoretical player’s expectancy for the tie is -14.3596%.

Flat betting only.

Strike +30, +40, +50, +60 = MB Advanced Tie Count after which to bet tie

Percentage of Bets Won = Percentage of all bets won for tie, where the theoretical expectancy for winning the tie is 9.5156%.

Percentage Bet Opportunity = Percentage of all betting opportunities available to bet, determined by the strike count.

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Graphs of Net Units Won per Shoe:

Strike +30, +40, +50, and +60 (full view):

Strike +30, +40, +50, and +60 (close up):

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Other Statistics:

Percentage of Ties and Hands per Count:

Advanced Tie Count Bins	Frequency of Ties per Count	Frequency of Hands per Count	Percentage Ties per Hands
-71 to -80	31	265	11.6981%
-61 to -70	180	1,923	9.3604%
-51 to -60	1,100	11,511	9.5561%
-41 to -50	5,018	52,522	9.5541%
-31 to -40	17,581	184,004	9.5547%
-21 to -30	49,516	519,538	9.5308%
-11 to -20	111,411	1,172,155	9.5048%
-1 to -10	200,952	2,113,769	9.5068%
1 to 10	202,404	2,111,641	9.5852%
11 to 20	111,902	1,171,674	9.5506%
21 to 30	49,663	521,043	9.5315%
31 to 40	17,866	186,878	9.5602%
41 to 50	5,111	53,178	9.6111%
51 to 60	1,143	12,079	9.4627%
61 to 70	215	2,296	9.3641%
71 to 80	39	404	9.6535%
81 to 90	5	67	7.4627%
91 to 100	1	2	50.0000%

Frequency of Ties and Hands per Count:

Advanced Tie Count Bins	Frequency of Ties per Count	Percentage of Total
-71 to -80	31	0.0040%
-61 to -70	180	0.0233%
-51 to -60	1,100	0.1421%
-41 to -50	5,018	0.6482%
-31 to -40	17,581	2.2710%
-21 to -30	49,516	6.3963%
-11 to -20	111,411	14.3916%
-1 to -10	200,952	25.9582%
1 to 10	202,404	26.1457%
11 to 20	111,902	14.4550%
21 to 30	49,663	6.4153%
31 to 40	17,866	2.3079%
41 to 50	5,111	0.6602%
51 to 60	1,143	0.1476%
61 to 70	215	0.0278%
71 to 80	39	0.0050%
81 to 90	5	0.0006%
91 to 100	1	0.0001%
Total	774,138
Advanced Tie Count Bins	Frequency of Hands per Count	Percentage of Total
-71 to -80	265	0.0033%
-61 to -70	1,923	0.0237%
-51 to -60	11,511	0.1418%
-41 to -50	52,522	0.6472%
-31 to -40	184,004	2.2675%
-21 to -30	519,538	6.4022%
-11 to -20	1,172,155	14.4444%
-1 to -10	2,113,769	26.0478%
1 to 10	2,111,641	26.0216%
11 to 20	1,171,674	14.4385%
21 to 30	521,043	6.4208%
31 to 40	186,878	2.3029%
41 to 50	53,178	0.6553%
51 to 60	12,079	0.1488%
61 to 70	2,296	0.0283%
71 to 80	404	0.0050%
81 to 90	67	0.0008%
91 to 100	2	0.0000%
Total	8,114,949

Advanced Tie Count Bins = bins of 10 tie counts

Frequency of Ties per Count = how often ties occur for each count

Frequency of Hands per Count = how often a hand has a count

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Graphs of Other Statistics:

Frequency of Ties vs. MB Tie Count (log scale):

Percentage of Ties per Hands vs. MB Tie Count:

Disclaimer: The betting strategies and results presented are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Gambling involves substantial risks, and the odds are not in the player’s favor by design. The author does not state nor imply any system, method, or approach offers users any advantage, and he shall not be held liable under any circumstances for any losses whatsoever.