T and OT: Methods from Antiquity

For my next set of simulations, I will be examining a couple of very popular and ancient baccarat methods. Whether these methods have originated from France or China is uncertain (maybe concurrently?) and not all that important.  What is important is that they form the basis of many popular baccarat methodologies, and in one form or another, they have stood the test of time.

They are: 1) Repeat the second-to-last decision, and 2) Opposite the second-to-last decision.

In French, these are 1) Avant Dernier (AD), and 2) Reverse Avant Dernier (RAD).

Ellis’ students will know these as: 1) TB4L (“time before last”), and 2) OTB4L (“opposite time before last”).

For shorthand, I will refer to them as 1) T, and 2) OT.

The T and OT methods are simply one decision removed from the more straightforward Repeat and Opposite methods, which were examined in the first set of simulations (Baccarat Simulations Series 1 Results and Discussion).

Whereas the Repeat method bet that the last decision will occur again, the T method bets that the decision prior to the last one will occur again.  For example, if Decision #1 was P and Decision #2 was B, then bet that Decision #3 will be P and Decision #4 will be B.  Whatever the actual outcomes for Decisions #3 and #4 come out to be, you will bet that the same will occur for Decisions #5 and #6.

Whereas the Opposite method bet that the opposite of the last decision will occur again, the OT method bets that the opposite of the decision prior to the last one will occur again.  For example, if Decision #1 was P and Decision #2 was B, then bet that Decision #3 will be B and Decision #4 will be P.  Whatever the actual outcomes for Decisions #3 and #4 come out to be, you will bet that the opposites will occur for Decisions #5 and #6.

I will be examining T and OT by themselves, just as I had examined Repeat and Opposite by themselves in the first series. And just as I had done with the Repeat-Opposite toy model (ref. Check, Please!), I will test a simple combination of T and OT in another toy model.

Toy Strategy: OTT

1. Play OT.

2. After 2 consecutive losses, Play T until 1 loss, after which go back to OT.

For example, the following is Shoe #553 from the Zumma 1000 collection played with OTT using U1D2M2 and no money management (ref. Money Matters):

Shoe #553, Zumma 1000:

P B Pb Bb S
1 0
2 0
3 -1 -1
1 2 1
4 -1 0
2 -2 -2
3 -3 -5
5 4 -1
6 2 1
4 1 2
5 2 4
7 1 5
6 -2 3
8 -3 0
9 -4 -4
7 5 1
10 -3 -2
11 4 2
8 2 4
12 -1 3
9 -2 1
13 3 4
10 1 5
14 2 7
11 1 8
15 2 10
16 -1 9
12 2 11
17 -1 10
18 2 12
19 -1 11
20 -2 9
13 -3 6
14 4 10
21 2 12
22 1 13
15 2 15
23 -1 14
16 -2 12
24 3 15
17 1 16
25 2 18
26 -1 17
27 -2 15
18 -3 12
19 4 16
20 -2 14
21 -3 11
22 4 15
23 2 17
28 -1 16
24 -2 14
29 3 17
30 -1 16
31 -2 14
32 3 17
33 1 18
34 2 20
35 1 21
25 -2 19
26 3 22
27 -1 21
28 -2 19
29 3 22
30 1 23
31 2 25
32 1 26
36 -2 24
37 3 27
33 1 28
34 2 30
38 1 31
P B PS BS S
1 0
2 0
3 -1 -1
1 2 1
4 -1 0
2 -2 -2
3 -3 -5
5 4 -1
6 2 1
4 1 2
5 2 4
7 1 5
6 -2 3
8 -3 0
9 -4 -4
7 5 1
10 -3 -2
11 4 2
8 2 4
12 -1 3
9 -2 1
13 3 4
10 1 5
14 2 7
11 1 8
15 2 10
16 -1 9
12 2 11
17 -1 10
18 2 12
19 -1 11
20 -2 9
13 -3 6
14 4 10
21 2 12
22 1 13
15 2 15
23 -1 14
16 -2 12
24 3 15
17 1 16
25 2 18
26 -1 17
27 -2 15
18 -3 12
19 4 16
20 -2 14
21 -3 11
22 4 15
23 2 17
28 -1 16
24 -2 14
29 3 17
30 -1 16
31 -2 14
32 3 17
33 1 18
34 2 20
35 1 21
25 -2 19
26 3 22
27 -1 21
28 -2 19
29 3 22
30 1 23
31 2 25
32 1 26
36 -2 24
37 3 27
33 1 28
34 2 30
38 1 31

The format of the output is the same as first described in Check, Please!, that is:

The first column P records the Player decisions.
The second column B records the Banker decisions.

The third column Pb records the Player bet value and placement.
The fourth column Bb records the Banker bet value and placement.

The fifth column S records the running cumulative score.

In the Pb and Bb columns, a positive value indicates a winning bet, while a negative value indicates a losing bet.

To illustrate the OTT toy strategy’s method in the first twelve decisions of Shoe #553 of Zumma 1000, here is a play-by-play narration:

P B PS BS S
1 0
2 0
3 -1 -1
1 2 1
4 -1 0
2 -2 -2
3 -3 -5
5 4 -1
6 2 1
4 1 2
5 2 4
7 1 5

Again, the OTT method’s rules are: 1) Play OT, and 2) after losing any  2 bets in-a-row, play T until you lose a bet, after which go back to playing OT.

1.  We need 2 decisions to start the method, so wait out the first two hands.

2.  At decision 3 begin OT by betting Banker, since the decision prior to the last one was Player.

3.  Lose.  Bet Banker again, since the decision prior to the last one was Player.

4.  Win.  Bet Banker again, since the decision prior to the last one was Player.

5.  Lose.  Now bet Player, since the decision prior to the last one was Banker.

6.  Lose again.  Since we lost 2 in a row while playing OT, we switch to playing T next.  So, we bet Player, since the decision prior to the last one was Player.

7.  Lose again.  Since we lost while playing T, we switch back to OT next.  So, we bet Player, since the decision prior to the last one was Banker.

8.  Win.  Bet Player again, since the decision prior to the last one was Banker.

9.  Win.  Bet Banker, since the decision prior to the last one was Player.

10.  Win.  Bet Banker, since the decision prior to the last one was Player.

11.  Win.  Bet Player, since the decision prior to the last one was Banker.

12.  Win.

… and so on …

A note:  in this OTT toy model, you would switch to T after any two consecutive losses, regardless whether those losses occurred when you were using OT or T.  For example, in the above shoe, notice Player decisions 30 and 31.  Player decision 30 was a loss when playing T, after which we play OT, which resulted in a loss at  Player decision 31.  Because two losses in-a-row occurred, go back to playing T for the next decision, Player decision 32, which incidentally won.  So, for this OTT toy model, whenever losing twice in a row regardless which method was used, always bet using T next.  And whenever losing one bet when using T, return to using OT next.

Disclaimer:  The betting strategies and results presented are for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Gambling involves substantial risks, and the odds are not in the players favor by design.  The author does not state nor imply any system, method, or approach offers users any advantage, and he shall not be held liable under any circumstances for any losses whatsoever.

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2 Responses to “T and OT: Methods from Antiquity”

  1. […] T = same as prior-to-last decision (TB4L)
    OT = opposite from prior-to-last decision (OTB4L)
    OTT = combined OT and T method (toy strategy, ref. T and OT: Methods from Antiquity) […]

  2. […] In Baccarat Simulation Series 2 Results, I presented the numerical and graphical results of my second series of baccarat simulations. This time, I examined the basic methods of T and OT, ancient methods as old as the game itself, as well as a toy strategy OTT, which combines the two in a mechanical fashion (ref: T and OT: Methods from Antiquity). […]

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