Table of Contents

 

Being Scammed:
  1. How An Astute Scam-Buster Got Scammed
  2. How Not To Find A Business Partner
  3. Signs of Lies
General:
  1. Empty Pockets
  2. Creative Cons
  3. Mysterious Obelisk From 38,000 Feet
  4. The Law of Small Numbers
  5. Higgs and the Religion of Big Science
  6. Say you plan to roll a die 20 times. Which of these results is more likely: (a) 11111111111111111111, or (b) 66234441536125563152?
  7. 601.3952191 O’Clock?
  8. Solving the Original Buffon Needle Problem By The Method of Area Ratios
  9. Algorithms of Physical Wheels and Geometries of Computer RNGs
  10. “A Fire Breathing Dragon Lives In My Garage” by Carl Sagan
  11. Beware Helping Crackpots
  12. “Go for psychiatric help, you dumb f*ck!  And my name is EILEEN!!!”
  13. Young Girl Tussles With Old White Guy on CTA Bus
  14. The Many Irrationalities of Gamblers
  15. Chasing Good Intentions With Bad Physics
  16. State of Illinois vs. John Laney, Summary of the Case by a Juror

Trading:

  1. The Truth About Trading
  2. The Biggest Casino In The World
  3. When Big Boys Bust
  4. Optmia Trading Bot, January to June 2012
  5. Why You Can’t Make Money in FX: An Industry Insider Bares the Hard Core Truth About the Myth of the Retail Forex Market – Part 1

Roulette:

  1. Algorithms of Physical Wheels and Geometries of Computer RNGs
  2. The Mathematics of Roulette (The Teaching Company Video Clip)

Baccarat:

Baccarat Simulation iPhone App

  1. Beta Testers Wanted for iPhone iOS Baccarat Simulator App
  2. iOS Baccarat Simulator Beta Testing App Now Available on TestFlight

Baccarat Simulations

  1. Single Side, Rp, Opp, RO: Results, Discussion
  2. TB4L, OTB4L, OT: Results, Discussion
  3. RD12, RD3: Results, Discussion
  4. F2, F3: Results, Discussion
  5. Random Coin Flip Bets: Results, Discussion
  6. System 40: Results, Discussion
  7. Eirescott’s Birthday Paradox Grail: Results, Discussion
  8. MB Advanced Tie Count: Results, Discussion
  9. System 40S (Advanced System 40): Results, Discussion
  10. Maverick, Maverick Ultimate (Disparity): Results, Discussion
  11. Maverick, Maverick Ultimate (Lazy Man’s): Results, Discussion
  12. Maverick, Maverick Ultimate (Modes): Results, Discussion
  13. Maverick, Maverick Ultimate (Triggers): Results, Discussion
  14. 24 Karat Baccarat: Results, Discussion
  15. MB Ultimate Baccarat: Results, Discussion
  16. The Baccarat Code: Results, Discussion
  17. Oscar’s Grind: Results, Discussion
  18. Setups N1, N2: Results, Discussion
  19. Setup N3: Results, Discussion
  20. Setup N4: Results, Discussion
  21. MGM by Frits Dunki-Jacobs: Results, Discussion
  22. A1: Results, Discussion
  23. B Setups: Results, Discussion
  24. J Setups: Results, Discussion
  25. K Setups: Results, Discussion
  26. B2 Setups: Results, Discussion
  27. I1 Setups (50/50 Coin-Flips): Results, Discussion
  28. A2 Setups: Results, Discussion
  29. R Setups: Results, Discussion
  30. Zuan Xin Baccarat Great Learning: Results, Discussion
  31. Baccarat Advantage: Results, Discussion
  32. DM Setups: Results, Discussion
  33. Izak Matatya’s IBS 10: Results, Discussion
  34. Target Betting (Bare Bones’ Core Rules): Results, Discussion
  35. High-Hand: Results, Discussion
  36. Setup CS: Results, Discussion
  37. Setup SF: Results, Discussion

Baccarat Topics

  1. My Ph.D. ain’t in math, but …
  2. Popular Baccarat Systems
  3. My Baccarat Journey Begins
  4. At Best A Flip of the Coin
  5. The Only Real Skill in Baccarat
  6. The Secret of Baccarat
  7. Can We Beat RNG?
  8. Shuffle Control: Why It’s Bad for the House
  9. Beating Random
  10. Failure Is An Option
  11. Fallacies and Illusions
  12. Conceit Leads to Ruin
  13. My Baccarat Shoe Factory
  14. Sim Smart
  15. Check Please!
  16. Money Matters
  17. T and OT: Methods from Antiquity
  18. Squeaky Parts
  19. Can Betting on Birthdays Make You Rich?
  20. Can Betting on Birthdays Make You Rich? (Short Version)
  21. Grinding Away At Nothing
  22. Triple Baccarat: Odds and Expectancies
  23. Walking Through Walls
  24. Trying To Beat the Baccarat LIAR Detector
  25. Net the Neut: The Origins of Net Betting
  26. Transcendental Baccaratology
  27. The Law of Small Numbers
  28. Shuffle Master MD3 Observations
  29. The Biggest Casino In The World
  30. Why Any Progression Must Fail for Negative Expectancy Games In the Long Run
  31. Why I Want to Sell You the Holy Grail for $25,000: Because I Want to Help You!
  32. Solving the Original Buffon Needle Problem By The Method of Area Ratios
  33. Algorithms of Physical Wheels and Geometries of Computer RNGs
  34. “A Fire Breathing Dragon Lives In My Garage” by Carl Sagan
  35. Crackpot Pi
  36. Interview with Lee Evans of baccarat.leeware.com
  37. Beware Helping Crackpots
  38. $4,995 (previously $100,000) Baccarat Card Counting Method Sold on eBay
  39. A Baccarat Card Counting Method for Six Deck Shoes (from Padova University)

Baccarat Data

  1. My Baccarat Shoe Factory
  2. Disparity Data
  3. Frequency of Ties in 1M Baccarat Shoes
  4. Trying to Beat the Baccarat LIAR Detector
  5. P and B Events Statistics: A Comprehensive Comparison
  6. Effect of Card Value Removal on Expectancies in Baccarat
  7. Effect of Card Value Removal on Bias and Event Frequencies in Baccarat
  8. A Call For Live Data
Baccarat Fun
  1. Klingon Baccarat Dealers in the 24th Century
  2. Brain’s Palace:  The World’s First All Baccarat Casino
  3. Barney’s Backside Bacc Edge

Maverick, Maverick Ultimate

  1. At Best A Flip of the Coin
  2. Maverick Ultimate Mentorship
  3. Introducing Maverick Ultimate
  4. Maverick’s Black Swan
  5. Maverick and Maverick Ultimate Simulations Summary
  6. Maverick Ultimate Baccarat Goes Dark

Systems Sellers and Scammers

  1. Scammers- Masters of Manipulation
  2. It Pays to be a Scammer
  3. Popular Baccarat Systems
  4. Frauds Them All
  5. Ellis is a Coward (and a Fraud)
  6. Ellis is Not a Coward (and Might Not Be a Fraud)
  7. Anthony (Tony) Lango: Clever Con or Just Naive?
  8. Yet Another Baccarat Scammer: Jay, Justtryingtomakeit, Craig Mayor, takingthebank, melarvae
  9. Scamming: The Rule Rather Than The Exception
  10. Tony Lango’s New Spin
  11. Science, Not Gambling
  12. Would You Let a Guy on Meth Gamble with Your $20,000?
  13. Tony Lango @ It Again!
  14. A Delusional Paranoid Wants To Take Down The House
  15. A Victim of Jay (“Craig Mayor”) Tells His Story
  16. Open Challenge to Anthony Lango
  17. Steve Gowan: A New Name for an Old Con
  18. System 40: Ellis’ Crown Jewel
  19. System 40 Advanced?
  20. The Ties That Bind
  21. Brannan’s Ultimate Baccarat: Dis-Advantaged Play
  22. 24 Karat Fool’s Gold Beats Both Zummas
  23. Does a Ph.D. Help in Baccarat?
  24. Maverick Ultimate Mentorship
  25. Introducing Maverick Ultimate
  26. Maverick’s Black Swan
  27. Maverick and Maverick Ultimate Simulations Summary
  28. What Would You Do With $140 Million?
  29. The Shuffle Master Hustler
  30. Does A Harvard Education Help You Win Baccarat?
  31. Baccarat Advantage: A Bogus Black Box
  32. Maverick Ultimate Baccarat Goes Dark
  33. “I B.S.”
  34. MaxSystemos
  35. Creative Cons
  36. Why I Want to Sell You the Holy Grail for $25,000: Because I Want to Help You!
  37. Algorithms of Physical Wheels and Geometries of Computer RNGs
  38. “A Fire Breathing Dragon Lives In My Garage” by Carl Sagan
  39. Crackpot Pi
  40. Beware Helping Crackpots
  41. $4,995 (previously $100,000) Baccarat Card Counting Method Sold on eBay
  42. A Baccarat Card Counting Method for Six Deck Shoes (from Padova University)

Casino Reviews and Trip Reports

  1. Horseshoe Casino, Hammond (Whiting), IN
  2. Horseshoe Chinatown
  3. Return to Horseshoe
  4. Harrah’s Casino, Joliet, IL
  5. Hurrah at Harrah’s Joliet
  6. My Baccarat Journey Begins
  7. Hollywood Park Casino and Racetrack, Inglewood, CA
  8. Shadowing Ellis at Hollywood Casino at Penn National Race Course
  9. Ellis and I Take on Atlantic City
  10. Ellis’ NOR Seminar in PA and Field Trip to AC
  11. Rivers Casino, Des Plaines, IL
  12. Tough Horseshoe
  13. Out of Scorecards!
  14. Gaining My Edge on Horseshoe
  15. Matching Ellis’ Shadow
  16. Black Tuesday
  17. Cause for Pause
  18. Things To Do & See in Las Vegas
  19. Shuffle Master MD3 Observations

16 replies on “Table of Contents”

hi there…

Are you from maverick who simulated all the MU shoes? Also, thx for all your suggestion on the systems.. what do you think about the dragon baccarat system?

Thanks

@eggfragment Yup, I am. Regarding the Dragon systems, a friend tested the beginner and intermediate level systems and they both lose. No one we know has the advanced level systems, so I don’t know if anyone has independently tested them. Someone at the forums claimed to have bought the advanced one with a few buddies, but reported they lost playing it. Anecdotal, but probably true.

Dave, if I were to bet $25 with a BR of 400 units($10000). It doesn’t matter what game I played be it blackjack or baccarat, etc. I make sure I walk out a winner even if it is a 1 unit win. How long do you think I could walk away a winner until eventually no matter how I tried or bet size adjustment still unable to walk out a winner. Time per session is not an issue here that we are discussing. Is there a calculation to this?

It’s all a matter of probability. The bigger your bankroll, the greater your chance of walking away with a gain. But even if the odds favored you, the chances you can win in the long run against an opponent with an infinite bankroll (i.e. The House) are vanishingly small. Look up “gambler’s ruin” for mathematical equations regarding this.

Virtuoid, you have put so many effort on beating the baccarat. Is there any way to win consistently?

Thanks, Elvis.
Unfortunately, no, there is no way to win consistently.
Unless you enjoy the game for its own sake, your time is much better spent doing something more productive.
Best,
Dave

By Post Author

Dave, bet selection, negative progression(U1D2M2) and money management(Scenario C in MONNEY MATTER) do increase the chance to win baccarat. It is so near Dave, with your superb mathamatics advantage, it is possible to beat the baccarat. Cheer up 😀

I’m glad you think positively, Elvis. You have a nice wish, but, unfortunately it cannot be objectively demonstrated.

Hey Dave, can I run a unique one by you?

This relies on watching “Gamblers” at the table, we all know one thing is certain at casinos… The house ALWAYS wins. So why not bet with the house?

Bank roll for the day 15 units…. Win Target for the day 2 units.

Sit down at a semi-full table. Using players as the trigger. seats 1 or 10 are the best for viewing other players win/loss records

Track every gamblers win and loss with (lose = – , win = + )
for every players with 4+, bet against them using 1248 progression.

Ask yourself how many times you won 8 times in a row?

How many times would you run into a player that win 8 times in a row?

I don’t know what’s the math behind it

Thanks, Roger …

Your idea is not likely to succeed on a practical level, because you would have to have pockets as deep as the house’s to survive the short term variations. The house can afford to do this, because its pot is basically the combined bankrolls of all the casino visitors, and it uses the money from losing players to pay the winning players, locking in commissions as its profit. In the long run, all it can expect to win on average is its commissions.

Remember, even if you bet against other players, you have to pay commission every time you win, which acts as friction against your bankroll. Regardless what mechanism you choose to place your bets, whether it be from a system, randomly, or betting against other players, a bet is still a bet, a bet has no memory of the past, and a bet is still subject to the exact same probabilities which state in the long run, you will lose at a tune of about 1% in the long run.

Best,
Dave

What was the judges answer when you asked what happens in the event you couldn’t decide? Seems as if after 2 votes of it being unanimous it would be a mistrial, no?

Thanks for your question, Morgan. Unanimous decision was required. So it would have been a mistrial with just 1 dissenting vote.

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